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Choosing a stock – Part 4: Don’t buy if the price will be better next week.

So far we’ve looked at two of the five factors I think are important in choosing a stock. Hopefully you agree that the system seems quite simple and requires very little time. Remember, the name of this blog is Passive Dividend Income. I don’t want to spend too much time or effort on this and I certainly don’t want to have to think about my portfolio all the time. I invest a little time in choosing a stock and then pretty much forget about it until it’s time to buy again, letting that small investment pay dividends in the future. Ok, I couldn’t resist that pun. In the last entry we talked about buying a stock that’s on sale. Now let’s talk about making sure there won’t be a better sale on that stock in the future.

Back to our analogy. I’ve picked the supplier I want to buy from, I’ve found the item I want and now I’m checking to see if it’s on sale. I’m in luck! It is. The trouble is, how do I know this is the best price I can get? In other words, what if I buy it now and then it goes on sale the following week at a deeper discount? Oh, the horror! Last time we learned we can determine if the stock is on sale by comparing the current price to the 52 week high. As with the camping gear, how do I know this is the lowest the price will go? I don’t. But what I can know is how the current price compares to the lowest price people have paid in the last year (known as the 52 week low).

picking_a_stock_part_4Time for another calculation. For each company on the S&P 100 I figure out how far above the 52 week low it is. This gives me an idea of whether the sale price is the best price for this stock or if it’s likely to go lower in the future. In the example at the left, we see the stock is 0.8% above the 52 week low. This is exceptionally close to its 52 week low which means that, while it’s still on sale, the price could go lower still. In other words, if the stock were trading at, say, 10% higher than the 52 week low, it suggests that the price is recovering. To be sure, we could simply look at the price history for the last few weeks. Lots of websites provide that kind of information but the charts at www.google.com/finance are especially easy to use.

A stock that is far from the 52 week low is not at the best sale price anymore. Remember, share prices fluctuate between the 52 week high and 52 week low. Our goal is to try and buy when they are far below the high but not yet far above the low. Incidentally, being a little above the 52 week low also suggests the price is recovering and less likely to go lower after I buy it. I’m a little wary of stocks that are at their 52 week low for that very reason.

Of course, lots of things affect share prices but these are big, blue chip companies with high daily trading volumes that are being bought and sold by lots of institutional investors so the prices don’t move very much day-to-day. Lots of people are doing in depth analyses of company valuations which means we don’t have to – thankfully! We can let the price history be our guide to what people are willing to pay now and what they might pay in the future. While our long-term focus is dividend income, we’d like to see growth in the value of the stock too!

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January’s Pick

This month International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM) came out in the top spot with a score of 13, so we’re increasing our position in them after also recommending it last month. It’s currently trading at 21.6% below the 52-week high, representing a good sale, and offers a dividend of 3.8%.january_pick

The ratios are also still strong with a P/E of 9.49 and EPS of 14.57. Let’s not forget that Buffett still likes them. Works for us! Remember, too, that while our overall goal is to grow dividend income, capital appreciation of the share price is an important way to build wealth. IBM doesn’t have the highest dividend rate but it offers potential for share price improvement and is a safe bet overall. Last month we mentioned keeping an eye on Williams Companies (NYSE: WMB). This month they placed in the top ten but are too risky for us to recommend it. They are currently 60% below their 52-week high becausethey gave up some ground in the last month meaning their share price continues to slide. Sure, their dividend rate is now over 10% but that might not be sustainable and the slipping share price could still offset that return. We’ll keep waiting on that one.

Choosing a stock – Part 3: Buy on sale.

In the last entry we talked about the second factor to consider when buying a stock – the dividend rate. My overall goal is to develop a stream of income from my portfolio and collecting regular dividend payments is one way to do that. I buy companies on the S&P 100 which pay the highest dividend rate. In this entry we’ll move on to step 3.

Let’s go back to our analogy. I’m trying to buy a new piece of camping gear and I’ve decided to go with a well-known supplier. I’ve chosen a good quality piece of equipment (companies on the S&P 100) that will last and add value to my hiking experience (companies that pay the highest regular dividend). Being a frugal person (some friends would say ‘cheap’) I’m going to wait until the item I want is on sale. Why pay more than I have to right? If I wait for a sale I can get the same item for less!

walmart_priceWhen choosing a stock, I apply the same principle. The good news is, with so many companies on the S&P 100, there’s nearly always something on sale. You might be wondering what on earth I’m talking about when I say a company is on sale. Let me explain. I figure a good way to estimate the value of something is to see what people are willing to pay for it. This is true of camping equipment and stocks alike. It’s easy to see what people are willing to pay for a stock because that’s what the current trading price is. We can see from the image above that Walmart was trading at $61.30 per share on December 31, 2015.

Ok, now we know what the current price of a stock is but how do we tell if that’s a sale price or not? Easy! I look at the maximum price people were willing to pay over the last year (called the 52 week high) and compare that to the current price. Pretty simple, right?! Again, I find that price for every company on the S&P 100 and calculate how far below the 52 week high the current price is. Let’s look at an example.

picking_a_stock_part_3Basically, people were willing to pay $66.36 for this stock within the last year and I can now buy it for $33.49 – a discount of 49.5%. This is a solid company on the S&P 100 so, chances are, it’ll be back to that high within a year or so and I will have realized a 98.1% return. Oh yeah, and collected my 5.49% dividend in the meantime. Sweet! Would you be excited to buy something you think is valuable at that kind of discount? Of course, you would!

Just like with the dividend rate, I assign a score to each stock depending on how far below the 52 week high it’s trading. In other words, I look to see which stocks are really on sale. That score is added to the score the stock earned from its dividend and I’m one step closer to making a decision.

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We sold Apple!

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) has been flat for several months now and they’re currently paying a dividend of only 1.98%. We don’t usually hold stocks that pay less than 3.5% so it was time to sell. We bought them in April, 2013 for $61.40 (adjusted before  a 7:1 split) because they were undervalued at that time. We happily accepted the less than stellar dividend because the share price was appreciating nicely. They’ve given up some ground lately and don’t seem to be recovering so it was time to take our profit. We sold at $107.50 to realize a return of 75% – not bad for 33 months! We’re confident their share price will improve again but in the meantime we’d like a better dividend. Thanks for the ride Apple!

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Choosing a stock – Part 2: It’s all about the dividend!

Our last post described the first criterion we use when choosing a stock to buy. We stick to companies listed on the S&P 100. These are safe, solid companies that have a proven track record. They’re not going to post meteoric gains but won’t you lose any sleep worrying about the bottom falling out either. The name of this blog is, after all, Passive Dividend Income, so we don’t want to be spending lots of time working on or worrying about our portfolio. Having said that, let’s move on to step 2.

dividendsRemember our analogy of purchasing a piece of camping equipment (or whatever you want to imagine buying)? We decided to buy from a major supplier – one we feel we can count on to be there if we need them. What else do I want from my purchase? I want the equipment to last so I can enjoy it for years to come. I want it to ADD value to my experience. This is like the dividend a company pays – it’s going to add to the value of my portfolio and, when it comes time to retire, is going to provide the income I’m looking for.

Some companies choose to distribute a portion of their earnings to their shareholders. This is called a dividend. Our goal is to build a stream of income from our investment portfolio and this income will be in the form of dividends. That means it’s important to choose stocks that pay the highest rate. As you learn more about companies on the S&P 100 you’ll see that most of them pay a quarterly dividend but you’ll soon discover that the rate of return of those dividends vary considerably from company to company.

For example, on December  AT&T Inc (T:NYSE) closed at 34.64 and paid a quarterly dividend of $0.48 which is a return of 5.5% (0.48 x 4 times/year divided by 34.64). This means for every $1000 you invest in this stock, you’d be paid $55 in dividends. By contrast, on the same date FedEx closed at $149.65 and paid a quarterly dividend of $0.25 which is a return of 0.67%. For every $1000 you invest in FedEx, you’d be paid $6.70 in dividends. As you can see, the stock you choose makes a HUGE difference. The first step in our strategy is to look up the dividend for every company on the S&P 100 and assign a score to each one based on the dividend it pays. While this score is mostly arbitrary, it serves as a means of ranking the companies based on several factors (the dividend is only one of 5 factors we consider) that we use to make a choice. It’s a way of removing emotion and bias from our investing choices. We’ll see the criteria for assigning scores in a later post.

And that’s step 2. Short and simple. Buy shares in companies that pay the best dividends.

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Choosing a stock – Part 1: Stick to the S&P 100

A few years ago I realized that I had to change my investment strategy. Until that time I had been playing pretty fast and loose with my investment dollars. I was choosing risky stocks and riding the excitement of the big wins while mostly pretending the big losses didn’t happen. Sure, I was coming ahead overall but I knew one big loser could wipe out my capital. As I got older I recognized that I had less time to take advantage of compound growth to accumulate wealth and I had to start looking for a safer alternative.

stock_marketThat’s when I started working on my own strategy for choosing stocks. I have to disclose that I have no formal education or training in stock investing or financial advice but I do know that nobody cares more about my money than I do! I took it upon myself to start learning everything I could about the stock market and evaluating a stock. Let’s just say that didn’t go well. There were all kinds of factors to consider: beta, price/book ratio, return on equity, net profit margin, EBITDA, blah, blah, blah. When I wasn’t falling asleep reading about all that stuff I was worried about being in over my head and that it would never make sense to me. I quickly realized as an amateur I was going to have to dramatically simplify things so I began trying to figure out what the most important things were.

Maybe I could think about choosing a stock like making any other purchase. What are the factors I consider when buying other things? A car, a TV, a mobile phone, whatever. I like to go backcountry camping whenever I can and that hobby requires some special gear which I’ve slowly acquired over the years. I wondered, when I’m thinking about a new piece of gear, what things do I consider when reaching a decision? First, I want to buy from a company with an established reputation I can trust. I want a company that has proved its longevity and is going to be there if I have a problem. I’m likely going to stick with suppliers like Cabella’s, MEC, or REI and manufacturers such as Patagonia, Marmot, or Arc’teryx.

In the world of stock market investing, we’re talking about the companies on the S&P 100. Companies on that list represent a variety of sectors and account for about 57% of the market capitalization of the S&P 500 (a similar index containing a greater number of companies) and almost 45% of the entire market capitalization of the U.S. equity markets. The stocks in the S&P 100 tend to be the largest and most established companies in the S&P 500. These companies have proven themselves worthy of inclusion on that list and that makes me very comfortable buying them. They’re companies we’ve all heard of. They are Coca Cola, Wal-Mart, Microsoft, AT&T and 3M. Take a look at the list and you’ll recognize many of them. Do I occasionally find a deal so great that I stray from a really well-known camping equipment company and take a chance? Of course! But mostly, I’m sticking with the big guys. That’s also true of picking a stock. Once I gained a little confidence – acquired from seeing the performance of my portfolio – I started to occasionally branch out into companies that aren’t on the S&P 100 if I thought they presented an opportunity. More about that in a later post.

So that’s Step 1. Stick to well-known companies that are listed on the S&P 100. They’re solid, safe, blue chip stocks that have a proven track record.

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When doubling a dividend might not be all it seems…

Let’s start out by saying we’re HUGE fans of The Motley Fool. Tom and David Gardner believe in taking a long-term outlook on picking good companies and they’ve done very well at it! On December 10, a post written by Sean Williams recommended three stocks with dividend payments that might double in 2016. That’s right – double! If you’re like us, the thought of a dividend payment from a solid company doubling is pretty exciting. When we took a closer look, however, things weren’t quite as exciting as they first seemed.

The Motley FoolSean’s recommendations were Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN), Littelfuse (NASDAQ:LFUS) and Allegiant Travel (NASDAQ:ALGT). We’re not disagreeing with any of the reasons for his prediction (you can read those for yourself if you like) but, rather, pointing out why these would not be companies we would pick right now. Amgen is currently trading only 13% below the 52 week high so it’s not at a bargain price right now and it’s current dividend of 2% doesn’t meet our minimum of 3%. Littelfuse is also not on sale as its trading very close to it’s 52 week high and with a current dividend of 1% it wouldn’t make our cut even if it did double – which nobody can say for sure that it will – so it’s out. Finally, Allegiant Travel does offer an attractive price right now at 27% below the 52 week high and even boasts middle of the road P/E and EPS of 17.56 and 9.91, respectively. It falls short of the dividend target though by paying only 0.69%. For a strategy that focuses on dividends, that’s an abysmal choice!

So what, exactly, are we trying to say? Simply, just because you read that a company could possibly double its dividend doesn’t mean you should own the stock. Even if a source you trust – like the guys at Motley Fool – recommends it, take some time to do a little thinking of your own. On these three, we pass.

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December’s pick

This month we’re buying International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM). After all the scores had been assigned, there were a couple of really attractive options this month. Williams Companies Inc (NYSE: WMB) and Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) had scores of 10 each, but IBM came out in the top spot with a score of 13. WMB is trading 41% below the 52 week high which is a great sale, but continued uncertainty in the energy sector means it might go lower still so could be a better buy later. It also offers an awesome dividend yield of 7.1% but we managed to resist that
siren call.
ibmCAT is trading 32% below its 52 week high and the dividend is 4.3%, significantly higher than IBM’s 3.8%, making it another attractive choice.

We don’t always automatically buy the stock with the highest score because there are always other factors, beside the five financials we look at, to consider.

Despite what both WMB and CAT have to offer, we went with IBM for three reasons:

  1. At a P/E of 9.1 it seems undervalued so offers a better buy for the price. CAT’s P/E is 14.8.
  2. The EPS is 14.57 compared to CAT’s 4.82 – a big difference – which means IBM is earning more money per share.
  3. Warren Buffett continues to add to his position in IBM (Berkshire Hathaway now owns over 8% of IBM’s outstanding shares). ‘Nuff said?

Remember, while we favor dividend income, we also want to protect and grow our capital, which is why we chose to go with the promise of growth in IBM’s price over the dividend yield of WMB. I’m sure WMB will remain on our radar and will likely be a strong contender in the months to come.

Trading time for money
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Trading time for money

A few years ago we realized the wealth we could create would always be limited if we continued trying to build it in the traditional way. By ‘traditional,’ we mean the way our parents taught us and their parents taught them. There’s a good chance it’s the way your parents taught you, too: trading time for money. Essentially, trading time for money means you go to work for several hours most days and  someone pays you for the time you spend there. Because we all have only 24 hours every day, we’re all limited in the amount of money we can earn using that model.

We wanted more.

Trading time for moneyWe began to talk about ways to build wealth while on vacation, or watching a movie, or hanging out with friends, or… asleep. Early on in this journey (and it really is a journey), we learned there was a term for what we were looking for – “passive income.” While there are lots of ways to earn passive income, the one that appealed to us most was buying stocks that pay dividends. To be honest, some of the early appeal was that we both had experience investing in the stock market so it didn’t seem scary to us. In this blog, we hope to narrate our journey to share what we’ve learned with anyone who might want to do the same. Remember, writing a book, selling a product online, affiliate marketing, real estate (though that one isn’t completely passive), and lots of others are all ways to earn passive income. We would never claim that investing in dividend-paying stocks is the best method, it’s just the option we chose. We happen to think they’re the most passive as well.

A dividend is a payment a company makes to shareholders as a way to distribute a portion of its earnings. Dividends can be paid as cash payments or in additional shares of stock. Start-ups and other companies that want to grow quickly rarely offer dividends because they reinvest their profits to finance their growth. Larger, established companies tend to pay regular dividends as a way to attract and keep shareholders. These are the companies we want to own.

You would be forgiven for asking how a company’s decision to pay a dividend can affect the share price. Basically, shareholders are less certain of receiving the benefits of future growth that might result from reinvesting profits than they are of receiving current dividend payments. Investors place a higher value on having a dollar in their pocket today than on a dollar which may (or may not) be paid some time in the future. It stands to reason, then, that they are willing to pay more for a share of the company.

When you combine the stability of large, blue chip companies with the near-certain income stream of regular dividends, you get a recipe for a money-making machine you can use to build your financial independence. If building a stream of dividend income is something that interests you, we hope you’ll find our blog helpful.

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Building a money-making machine

The Passive Dividend Income Blog is our way of sharing our interest in investing (pardon the pun). Investing is really a hobby for us, but more than that, successful investing transcends the need or want for money, and really gets to our core value of having more choices in life and creating multi-generational wealth. For us, wealth is freedom. Freedom to have more leisure time, freedom from worry about bills, freedom to enjoy hobbies.

Money-making machine

In this blog, you will hear two “voices.”  We aren’t Chartered Financial Analysts; we’re not licensed to sell investment products. All we offer are our investment ideas in a 100% transparent way. We are two high school teachers excited about the possibility investing offers, who exchange ideas during our once-per-week corridor duty at our school. We thought we’d share our ideas with the world and see where it takes us.

Let’s talk about building a money-making machine. If a machine existed that could produce the income you want or need, would you build or buy one? We would! Luckily, such a machine exists and the blueprint is very simple: invest money. If you invest $1000, and it earns 5% annually, that $1000 is a money-making machine that produces $50 of income every year. FOREVER!  Talk about multi-generational wealth!  It really is that simple.

Many investment blogs and ‘gurus’ will tell you how to realize growth by talking about risk and capital appreciation. They’ll have hot stock tips and ‘guaranteed’ spectacular returns if you act right away! Nearly all of them offer their “insiders” newsletter for a modest price (how can you afford to say no?). While there is some truth to some of these claims (unless they use words like ‘guarantee’), the bottom line is that money needs to be invested to grow and you don’t need to pay a broker to do it. We hope by reading our blog you’ll learn that you can invest money on your own.

For us, dividend income is a great way to build a money-making machine. By investing in the stock market, we are giving money to businesses that earn money. If we choose companies that are profitable and pay dividends, then we are sharing in their profits. These companies will give us a portion of their profits every single quarter. The potential capital appreciation of the stock is not the only consideration for investing in a company, although companies that are profitable will also appreciate in value. What we look for is a strong company that pays reliable dividends.

Our plan is to share our progress as well as everything we’ve learned along the way so that you, too, can build your own money-making machine. Welcome to the PDI (Passive Dividend Income) Blog. Thanks for reading and happy investing!

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